On Friday, WGBH contributor and Fox 25 political commentator Peter Kadzis, former Executive Editor of the Boston Phoenix, was kind enough to share his thoughts and answer questions regarding the Boston mayoral race during a 45 minute phone conversation.  

Here is what BostInno readers need to know: young voters, historically, do not participate in elections. This, Peter Kadzis said, is due not necessarily to a lack of interest, but is out of relevance. Until people have kids, and issues such as affordable housing and the economic landscape become priorities, rather than concepts frequently discussed by the talking-heads, democratic participation is, traditionally, an after thought. Of course, young people do vote, but not as much as they (we) should.

As Kadzis pointed out, the November 5 mayoral election will be that much more difficult for potential voters because it has been two decades since there have been two candidates, one of which isn’t named Thomas Menino. “These are two young politicians at the top of their game,” Kadzis said, acknowledging their ability to respond timely, and appropriately, when a crisis such as last week’s bus strike occurred.

Since, “John Connolly and Marty Walsh are so remarkably similar on so many issues,” it’s fair to say that the inability of either candidate to act accordingly when a situation presents itself could swing the pendulum in favor of one or the other. But that has yet to happen. Perhaps the closest the 2013 race has come to tipping the scale towards a particular candidate was last week when Walsh was endorsed by John Barros and Felix Arroyo, which, for Kadzis, did not come as a surprise.

While Arroyo’s union ties made him a likely Walsh supporter, Barros, in my estimation, was an unexpected endorsement for the former union leader. Kadzis, though, disagreed.

“When I would talk to Barros supporters (after Labor Day) almost all of them said ‘I would stick with the guy from Dorchester,'” if Walsh was the only Dorchester candidate come November.

Like Walsh and Barros, Kadzis is a Dorchester native. He was quick point out the strong neighborhood loyalty that defines the Boston neighborhood, that, years ago, was hardly socially progressive. Currently, “Walsh is trying to harness” this progressive energy, said Kadzis.

“(Arroyo and Barros) will also be out campaigning for Walsh,” and have the potential to bring in an additional 18,000 votes Walsh’s way.

Arroyo, 34, and Barros, 39, not only bring a minority presence to the Boston political scene, but they also underscore the presence of relatively young candidates in a race to succeed Mayor Menino, who will turn 71 in December. Kadzis, however, does not feel endorsements from Arroyo and Barros secures a Walsh victory a few weeks from now.

“There’s no doubt that Arroyo and Barros have more flash,” Kadzis admitted, before acknowledging that Connolly’s recent endorsements from North End and East Boston representatives, and the support of black ministers should not be discounted. “Their opinions are respected in both communities,” Kadzis said.

“They’re different types of endorsements.”

Thus far, both Walsh and Connolly appear to be trying to tap into the so-called “New Boston,” a term gaining in popularity as the demographics of Boston — a majority-minority city — shift. As far as the political landscape of Boston is concerned, Kadzis feels “New Boston is an idea, not a demographic.”

Yes, Boston is more diverse and socially progressive than ever, but, as Kadzis explained, characteristics of “Old Boston” still run rampant.

“Municipal leadership has been remarkably stable,” said Kadzis, referencing the 20-year tenure of Menino and the lack of change in the demographics of city councilors. While Kadzis believes Boston is currently in the midst of a massive generational shift, he thinks its effects won’t be felt until a couple of years from now in City Hall. Not necessarily during this November’s mayoral election.

The best barometer of change in the city, Kadzis said, could be the current District 2 race for City Council between Suzanne Lee and Bill Linehan. It’s not the mayor race, but the city council race, Kadzis feels, that could indicate whether or not “New Boston” is a political force.

Lee came to Boston from Hong Kong when she was very young. Currently, she lives in Chinatown.

Linehan, on the other hand, is as Boston as they come; born and raised in Southie. He has served as the district’s city councilor for six years and hopes this experience will keep it that way.

Lee, a community Organizer and former BPS principal and teacher, lost to Linehan in 2011 by a mere 97 votes. If this year’s result flip-flops, it may suggest that “New Boston” is giving “Old Boston” the boot.

Regardless of who emerges as the winner(s) Nov. 5, Boston is set for dramatic change; for the first time since 1993, there will be a new occupant in the mayor’s office. For those looking for a prediction as to who that might be, Kadzis doesn’t have the answer.

“Honestly, I don’t know who’s going to win it,” said Kadzis. “We don’t have a wealth of data to extrapolate from.”

The 1993 race between Menino and James Brett is hardly a predictor of 2013’s upcoming results. “It’s a tale of two cities,” said Kadzis.

Twenty years ago, crime was a citywide issue and the real estate market was unstable. This year, Kadzis said, its about affordability for families in a city experiencing a development-boom; crime, while still a concern, is concentrated in “clearly defined areas.” The hotbed issues when Menino secured a four point victory in 1993 preliminary, before defeating Brett by nearly 30 percent in the general election, are not the same. The social and political values of Boston voters might not have changed, but they have evolved as the city has. Nevertheless, the city is ready for change.

“I don’t think the city wants another Menino,” said Kadzis, despite the incumbent’s approval rating hovering around 80 percent. “This doesn’t mean they don’t like him,” admitted Kadzis, but the upcoming election is about setting a new course.

Next month, the fight between “Walsh’s organizational muscle” and “Connolly’s popularity” will see one young, viable politician emerge as the mayor of a city where “the past is very much alive.”

Featured Image from dankennedy.net