Tonight’s inaugural mayoral debate between City Councilor John Connolly and State Rep. Marty Walsh could showcase two candidates all too keen to pat each other on the back, or they could amount to the first-round of a heavyweight slugfest; both Walsh and Connolly trading jabs before the bell.

David Paleologos, the Director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, believes tonight’s debate could unfold like a three act play; the candidates could look to layout their plans early before broadening their respective messages and, perhaps, engaging each other at the beginning of the final act.

Suffolk University polls have indicated since the onset of the race that Connolly has been the favorite to succeed Mayor Tom Menino. The most recent Suffolk poll showed Connolly holding a seven point lead over Walsh — a margin cut in half since the earliest July poll.

Not taken into consideration, however, were the recent, possibly game-changing, endorsements Walsh received from Felix Arroyo, John Barros and Charlotte Golar Richie in the past week.

According to Paleologos, Walsh’s latest campaign successes, might not necessarily spell victory for the former union leader come Nov. 5.

“As a general rule, endorsements are overstated,” Paleologos said during a phone call with BostInno last night. With neighborhood turnout results likely to play a pivotal role in the coming weeks, especially on voting day, Arroyo, Barros and Golar Richie, could put Walsh over the top at the voting booths.

“In the past, candidates haven’t been working hard,” said Paleologos, referring to the tendency of past endorsers to simply act as photo-oppers rather than ballot stuffers. If Arroyo, Barros and Golar Richie are able to get out the vote in their geographic areas — Jamaica Plain, Dorchester and Roxbury — Paleologos believes their support will matter.

Thus far, Connolly has been a consistent front-runner, but the early momentum he felt has been fading, and, perhaps, swung in the direction of Walsh.

Playing not to lose didn’t work for the Saints (Thanks Tom) and it doesn’t seem to be working for Connolly.

“You can’t run out the clock,” said Paleologos, suggesting that Connolly’s “conservative” campaigning over the course of the last few weeks has been similar to costly strategies that have allowed would-be winners snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

But, as Paleologos said, Connolly’s early advantage at the polls has allowed him this luxury.

Tonight’s debate could be just the opportunity for Connolly to remind potential voters why he has been the favorite to replace Menino. Or, maybe, the Walsh train will continue to pick up steam.

 

What Should Viewers Watch For?

 

Connolly and Walsh could look to target their gender bases.

Among potential women voters, Connolly, the education candidate, has created separation between himself and Walsh. The former union leader, however, is a slight favorite of potential male voters.

This, Paleologos said, represents “an outshoot part of the issues [Walsh and Connolly] are talking about.”

Connolly’s education platform has earned him great support from women while Walsh’s focus on the economy and jobs has played better with men, based on the Suffolk University polls.

In order to pander to these voting basis, Paleologos believes that Connolly and Walsh could expand on their campaign platforms — education and labor — and make each issue  part of a broader context.

For Connolly, education and improving Boston Public Schools could be a segue into a further discussions on crime reduction.

Labor and jobs could be a stepping stone for Walsh’s greater vision for economic development and the “equal playing field for all” mantra.

If the candidates toe their respective campaign lines, Walsh and Connolly could shift into attack mode.

“The Walsh camp might scrutinize the education credentials of Connolly,” said Paleologos, in a attempt to raise doubts in the minds of voters. While the former school teacher’s camp could try to “poison the waters on labor” to make potential Walsh voters weary of his strong union ties.

Ultimately, however, tonight — being the first of four debates — could be nothing more than a “love-fest,” where both candidates lay the framework for the later rounds.

“People are going to be looking for ‘who’s the visionary,'” said Paleologos. Neither candidate can win the election tonight, but they could alienate voters if they stray to far, or stay to near their original message.

Don’t expect Walsh or Connolly to promise everything to voters tonight. But if either candidates plays it too conservatively, potential voters could be tempted to throw in the towel.

 

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