The separation that City Councilor and mayoral candidate John Connolly created between himself and his opponent, State Representative Marty Walsh, has narrowed.

Leading up to the September 24 preliminary election, the question was “who will Connolly’s opponent be?”

Not, “will Connolly emerge as one of two candidates left standing, vying to succeed Mayor Tom Menino?”

Well, Connolly emerged. And with him Rep. Walsh.

If the Sept. 24 results were not already an indicator that Walsh — who narrowly won the preliminary — was more legitimate contender than necessary ballot-filler, last week’s endorsements from Felix Arroyo, John Barros and Charlotte Golar Richie were.

Tonight’s first debate between the candidates on WBZ at 7 p.m. presents an opportunity for Connolly to regain a firm grip on the race.

 

What Does Connolly Need To Do?

 

As David Paleologos suggested, Connolly’s early lead has afforded him the luxury of maintaining a conservative strategy since the preliminary; a need to suddenly go on the offensive has yet to present itself.

Even the news of Walsh’s endorsements have not seemed to spark concern from Connolly’s camp.

“I would give Walsh a slight edge in the battle of endorsements,” said WGBH’s Peter Kadzis during a phone conversation with BostInno on Tuesday. Connolly, however, “has an edge with parents of school kids.”

This bodes well for Connolly, the education candidate, heading into tonight’s showdown. With the Suffolk polls showing a distinct advantage for Connolly among potential women voters, for whom education — more so than labor issues — is of particular interest, the former school teacher can reinforce his platform.

Education is not just the focal point of Connolly’s campaign; it also happens to be one of the four issues at the center of the mayoral race.

Kadzis believes “education, economic development, affordable housing, and crime, especially in Roxbury, Mattapan and Dorchester ” will take center stage in the coming weeks.

For Connolly, he can broaden his education scope by touching on crime prevention and reduction, as well as affordable housing, especially for families with multiple children where finances are likely tight.

Thus far, Connolly and Walsh remain “remarkably similar” in terms of policy. Therefore, the candidates’ thoughts on the issues — education, economic development, affordable housing, and crime — might be of lesser importance than voting pools the two are trying to pull from.

“Support of minority voters is clearly what both [Connolly and Walsh] are competing for,” Kadzis said.

The Suffolk University poll released Oct. 7 indicated that Connolly’s edge in favorability over Walsh among potential minority voters is gender-biased; black women favored Connolly 52 percent to 16 percent for Walsh; Hispanic women favored him 47 percent to 31 percent.

Walsh, however, was a heavy favorite for men of color; black men favored Walsh 45 percent to 14 percent for Connolly; Hispanic men favored him 45 percent to 36 percent.

Connolly’s home neighborhood, West Roxbury, is predominantly white, while Dorchester, Walsh’s neighborhood, has a larger minority population. Therefore, Connolly will have have to appeal to more people of color across the city, in order to secure the majority of voters from this population.

As the debate progresses, watch to see if Connolly broadens his education platform and chooses to target, specifically, communities that have a large minority population.

Ultimately, however, Connolly, if he chooses to do so, can play to hold the lead.

With the start of tonight’s debate likely to coincide with the end of the Red Sox ALCS contest with the Detroit Tigers, the candidates will be all too aware that the eyes of Bostonians will be fixated elsewhere.

The longer the Sox keep people biting their nails, the less each candidate will be tempted to engage one another.

“How risky are the candidates going to be with an audience that hasn’t been maximized?” Kadzis wonders, acknowledging the high volume of Sox-watchers who may be reluctant to change the channel.

With potential gains minimized due to a small viewing audience, expect tonight’s debate to lay the framework for the three debates to follow. For Connolly, securing a victory tonight could be achieved by simply acting the part of a favorite; confident in demeanor and approach.

“If Connolly puts in a conservative and controlled appearance in the debate,” Kadzis said, “it would suggest that his strategy is working.”

 

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