John Connolly lost last night.

In a race that appeared so close – and ended up being so – Connolly conceded to Mayor-elect Marty Walsh with nearly half of the City’s remaining precincts yet to report voting numbers. When all was said and done, Walsh was elected the 48th Mayor of Boston by a 51.5 percent to 48 percent vote.

With such a slim margin separating both candidates, what did the Connolly and Walsh camps know that so many Bostonians didn’t?

We know what propelled Walsh to victory. But, how did Connolly lose the election?

The Neighborhood Battle

Connolly needed a strong showing from his home neighborhood, WARD 20, comprised of West Roxbury and Roslindale. And he got it. Connolly beat Walsh by about 3,400 votes in WARD 20, receiving 61 percent (9,445) of the vote out of 15,481 ballots cast.

Hometown love was to be expected, however. Correspondingly, Walsh dominated WARDs 15, 16 and 17, which span the all-too-critical Dorchester voting bloc.

On Walsh’s turf, Connolly struggled mightily. There were 17,562 ballots cast in WARDs 15,16 and 17; Connolly received only 30.4 percent (about 5,339) of the vote from those areas.

The breakdown:

• WARD 15 – 28.63 percent of 3,288 ballots cast
• WARD 16 – 24.64 percent of 8,045 ballots cast
• WARD 17 – 37.80 percent of 6,229 ballots cast.

In fact, WARDs 15, 16 and 17 were Connolly’s, first, third and fifth worst locations, in terms of percentage of vote, in that order.

So, the roughly 3,400 votes Connolly gained on Walsh in WARD 20, were trounced by the 12,000-plus votes Walsh received in his home neighborhood. In other words, WARDs 15, 16 and 17 gave Walsh about a 8,600 vote, or roughly 6 percent, lead.

Hyde Park Sealed the Deal

The battle for WARD 18, representing 11.4 percent of the total turnout (16,078 ballots), was a decisive Walsh victory. In the City’s largest WARD, Connolly received just 39.35 percent of the vote (6,374 ballots), losing to Walsh by about 3,330 votes.

Walsh’s victory in WARD 18 highlighted the importance of his endorsement from Charlotte Golar Richie, who – while running for mayor – had set up a campaign office in Hyde Park.

The Dorchester and Hyde Park victories for Walsh gave him a 11,930 vote, or roughly 8.5 percent edge, over Connolly.

Even though, statistically, Connolly polled about 4 percent better throughout the rest of the city, in the end, the distance Walsh created in WARDs 15, 16, 17 and 18 was too much for the City Councilor At-Large to make up.

And so, it’s Marty for Mayor.

Image via Esquire