Yes, conceding a goal in what felt like the 9,000th minute Sunday night was a bitter pill for USA soccer fans to swallow. After a tremendous second half comeback put them on the doorstep to second round qualification, the last gasp Portuguese lifeline sent the Americans back to the drawing board, and a 2-2 draw. Or, more accurately, it sent USA fans to the qualification chart, examining all of the possibilities for Jurgen Klinsmann’s team to advance into the knockout stage of the World Cup heading into their final group stage game against Germany on Thursday (12 p.m. EST).
As can be seen in the chart, there’s a lot of green to like (which indicates safe routes of qualification for the USA). Germany have no incentive to pile on goals against their old boss’ team, though they certainly aren’t a group who will deny themselves chances to score if presented with clearcut opportunity.
Group G table after two games:
So, here are the scenarios:
USA wins/draw: This is the dream scenario, and means qualification no matter what. In fact, a USA win means that they win the group, and probably avoid playing Belgium (though Algeria looked pretty good against South Korea in their 4-2 win).
USA loses/Portugal and Ghana draw: Still equals a qualification for the Americans, though it would be in second place. This is kind of the so-called “realistic” scenario that many fans are rooting for, aware of how difficult getting a result against the Germans will be.
USA loses/Portugal wins: This is another “realistic” scenario that meets with approval, barring a major goal rush from either Germany (in their win against the U.S.) or Portugal. Since the Portuguese got smoked by Germany 4-0 in the opener, they have the worst goal difference, and thus need the most help. Pray for Portugal, but only by a 1-0 margin.
USA loses/Ghana wins: This is the most dangerous scenario, as the Ghanians have a close goal difference with the U.S. Anything greater than a one goal loss against Germany for the Americans, and a one goal win by Ghana sends Klinsmann’s team out. This is the nightmare scenario, just so you’re aware of it.
That said, There are far more scenarios that send the USA through than don’t. And keep in mind, Germany tied Ghana, while the U.S. beat them. Anyone who just assumes that victory can’t be achieved against the Germans is foolish. The American coaching staff is dotted with former Germany players and coaches. If anyone can locate tactical weakness in their setup, it’s Klinsmann and his staff.
Screenshot via FIFA.com & chart via @ChrisBunn247
