It’s still early in the race to succeed Deval Patrick as Governor of Massachusetts. Local caucuses – town hall meetings used to elect a candidate to the Massachusetts convention of a respective party – won’t kick off until February, the primaries aren’t until September and election night won’t make or break the dreams of Beacon Hill hopefuls until November. But the most recent poll shows that some candidates are already leading the pack.
“The only game in town for the Democratic candidates vying to replace Gov. Patrick is recruiting delegates to the Massachusetts Democratic Party’s convention in June,” Kevin Franck, former spokesperson Governor Deval Patrick’s administration told BostInno in an email. “An insurgent candidate could surge out of the convention with a good showing just as easily as a frontrunner could limp into the summer months with a poor performance.”
Published in tandem by WBUR and MassInc Polling Group, the latest poll surveyed 504 registered voters between January 16 and 19. Of those who participated 53 percent thought favorably of Democratic candidate and current Attorney General Martha Coakley, 32 percent favorably of Republican contender Charlie Baker and 22 percent favorably of Democratic hopeful and current Treasurer Steve Grossman. The rest of the field garnered less than 10 percent favorability apiece.
Of course, Coakley was also the most disliked of the bunch taking in 28 percent of unfavorable tallies with just 14 and 10 percent apiece for Baker and Grossman, respectively.
Not surprisingly Baker, Coakley and Grossman, in order, finished 2013 with the highest fundraising counts of any of those vying for the State House.
Interestingly, the survey also asked participants who they would vote for if candidates were pitted against the other. Should the race come down to the wire between Coakley and Baker, 39 percent would vote for the former and 29 percent for the latter – with 22 percent undecided. If Baker were to take on any of the rest of the field (Steve Grossman, Mark Fisher, Juliette Kayyem, Joe Avellone, Evan Falchuk and Don Berwick – All Democrats except Fisher, a Republican) he would win by a margin of at least 10 percent.
“Some delegates will support candidates based on personal or geographic loyalty, but the vast majority of Democratic activists care first and foremost about beating Charlie Baker and Coakley is the only candidate ahead of him at this point,” added Franck.
Some important points to consider with this poll are the demographics. A respectable 36 percent of participants identified with the Democratic party, another 11 percent affiliated with Republicans, and a substantial 53 percent were either Independent or unenrolled. It’s interesting, then, that noted United Independent Party founder and candidate Evan Falchuk didn’t take a higher percentage among the majority, while right-winger Charlie Baker is neck-and-neck with Democratic frontrunner Coakley in a traditionally blue state.
More women than men were also examined – 52 percent to 48 percent – which may have inflated Coakley’s numbers seeing as how her current high-standing position gives her widespread name recognition and her only female opponent, Juliette Kayyem, is a relative political unknown.
“Grossman suffers in his matchup with Baker from lack of name recognition, a problem the former Massachusetts Democratic Party and Democratic National Committee Chair does not have with the corps of Democratic organizers who could fuel his campaign,” contuned Franck. “This poll means precisely nothing to Joe Avellone, Julliette Kayyem and Don Berwick. They are aiming to build the kind of grassroots effort that doesn’t tend to move poll numbers until closer to Election Day and they are all running solid campaigns.”
You can check out the complete survey below.
