In 2010, 144 million Americans aged 18+ celebrated Independence Day by attending a barbecue; 98 million watched ?reworks or went to a community festivity; and more than 28 million saw a parade. Does attending these highly patriotic celebrations have any affect on your political affiliations?
New research from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University suggests that taking part in July 4th celebrations as a child makes you more prone to lean Republican as an adult.
The research is titled, Shaping the Nation: Estimating the Impact of Fourth of July Using a Natural Experiment and was published back in March of this year. The academics behind the research include Andreas Madestam from the highly regarded Bocconi University in Italy and David Yanagizawa-Drot from the Harvard Kennedy School. The study examines what role July 4th celebrations play in shaping political views and partisanship here in the States.
The methodology for the study is interesting in and of itself. These researchers used weather data, specifically rainfall, from 1920 through 1990 as the proxy for participating/not participating in July 4th celebrations. What they found is that having 1 July 4th without rain before the age of 18:
- increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2%;
- increases the share of people voting for the Republican candidate at age 40 by 4%;
- increases the share of people turning out to vote at age 40 by 0.9%.
“We were surprised to find that childhood experiences of Fourth July celebrations could have such persistent effects. The evidence suggests that important childhood events can have a permanent impact on political beliefs and behavior and that Fourth of July celebrations in the US affect the nation’s political landscape,” the researchers conclude.
Directly from the abstract of the paper the researchers summarize:
This paper investigates the role of Fourth of July celebrations in shaping political views and behavior in the United States. We study the impact of Fourth of July during childhood on partisanship and participation later in life. Our method uses daily precipitation data from 1920-1990 to proxy for exogenous variation in participation on Fourth of July as a child. The estimates imply that days without rain on Fourth of July in childhood increase the likelihood of identifying with the Republicans as an adult, voting for the Republican but not the Democratic candidate, and voter turnout. Our ?ndings are signi?cant: one Fourth of July without rain before age 18 increases the likelihood of identifying as a Republican at age 40 by 2 percent, the share of people voting for the Republican candidate at age 40 by 4 percent, and the share of people turning out to vote at age 40 by 0.9 percent. The evidence is consistent with childhood experience having foundational effects less susceptible to adult political in?uence. It also suggests that there is political congruence between patriotism promoted on Fourth of July and Republican beliefs, as well as Fourth of July transmitting a non-partisan civic duty to vote.”
What do you think of the research and methodology? What questions do you have for the researchers? Let us know in the comments.
