Tomorrow, polling stations across the country will be open for the 2012 presidential election. While many people already know who they’re going to cast a vote for, there are still plenty out there who are unsure. In some cases, it might come down to the simple fact of who’s winning the polls right now. Keep in mind that a leader in the polls doesn’t guarantee a victory tomorrow, but for some it’s all it takes to make up their minds.
So who’s ahead as of right now? It depends on the poll you look at. Politico lists a number of polls on its website, both national and state-level, and most show the incumbent President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney as neck-and-neck.
Here’s a roundup of the latest polls:
National
The latest national polls by Politico show the candidates either tied or show President Obama with a slight edge over Romney. One poll taken by Politico from 10/29-11/1 of 1,000 likely voters has Obama with 48%, Romney with 48%, and 3% undecided.
The even more recent polls, one by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal and one by Public Policy Polling both closed yesterday. The NBC News/WSJ poll taken of 1,475 likely voters depicts Obama with a 48% lead over Romney’s 47%, an ironic number for Romney as that’s the same percentage of people he made light of during one of his infamous gaffes on the campaign trail.
Public Policy Polling’s latest numbers taken from 1,200 likely voters has Obama with a 50% lead over Romney’s 47% with another 3% undecided. All three polls are not completely accurate and have a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1%, 2.55%, and 3.2% respectively.
Massachusetts
The polls in Massachusetts tell a much different story than the national ones do. Of course, Massachusetts is a notoriously blue state and therefore may not be completely synonymous with national sentiments.
In a poll of 535 likely voters taken by Western New England College, which closed on Nov. 1, Obama leads with 58% with Romney trailing at 40%. An additional 2% are undecided/don’t know yet.
In a poll taken over the span on a day (Nov. 1- Nov. 2) by Public Policy Polling of 1,089 likely voters, Obama maintained a similar lead with 57%, with Romney again trailing at 42%. Another 2% remained undecided.
An older poll taken by Rasmussen Reports on Oct. 25 of 500 likely voters showed Obama with a commanding 59% lead to Romney’s 40% with a mere 1% undecided.
The margins of error in these local polls were slightly larger than the national ones coming in at plus-minus 4.2%, 3.0%, and 4.5% respectively.
Most national polls currently show Obama with a slight edge over Romney. The biggest thing to take away from these statistics, however, is that they’re just polls. These raw numbers aren’t definite but they’re a good indicator of things to come. In the end, it all depends on who shows up tomorrow and exercises their right to vote. For those still on the fence, these poll numbers might sway you one way or the other. For those already decided, be sure to vote during the designated times and correct polling stations tomorrow.
But what do you all think? Are polls an accurate indicator of who’s to be elected? Which polls do you prefer and why? Let us know what you think about polling and about the Presidential election in the comments section below.
