Happy holidays, Boston! For those celebrating Christmas, it’s less than two weeks until the big day. Though we’ve had a few brushings of snow already this winter, many of you will surely be wondering if we’ll have a white Christmas this year. I don’t mean to be a Grinch but the chances aren’t historically good, according to the data.

The National Climatic Data Center created a map using data from the 1981–2010 Climate Normals to illustrate the likelihood of at least an inch of snow on December 25. For Boston, the chances are between 26 percent and 40 percent. That doesn’t bode particularly well. The further west into Massachusetts, the more the odds increase.

“On the map, dark gray shows places where the probability is less than 10 percent, while white shows probabilities greater than 90 percent,” notes the NCDC.

The Climate Normals are an aggregation of the last three decades of climatological measurement including “temperature, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost/freeze dates, and growing degree days,” based on observations taken at some 9,800 stations operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Now, the odds for snow in Boston aren’t great based on history but there’s still a chance we could get some. This is New England, after all, where we’ve already seen temperatures range from freezing to near 50 degrees in December. The NCDC explicitly states that this year’s weather conditions could vary widely from what we’ve recorded in the past. These are merely meant to show where snow is most likely to appear, not determine exactly how much.

It would seem, though, the closest place one could travel for the best chance of a white Christmas would be in the Berkshires, throughout Vermont save for the Burlington area, and mid-to-upper New Hampshire.

Those in upper Maine, New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and around the Rocky Mountains and Sierra Nevadas, you best bundle up. The map is calling for a white out.