Boston’s first mayoral debate is taking place tonight at 7 p.m. and for the first time in 20 years, one of the candidates is not Mayor Tom Menino. The first of four televised bouts between City Councilor John Connolly and State Rep. Marty Walsh from now until the November 5 election, tonight’s tęte-ŕ-tęte could set the tone for the rest of the race.
Tonight is especially crucial for Walsh as nearly every poll pits Connolly as the favorite, though only slightly so. Sure, Walsh has nabbed some distinctive endorsements, many of whom are already on the mind of voters city-wide, but the Dorchester-native’s strategy must be to win on the streets.
First, though, both candidates need Bostonians to tune in — an issue seeing as how playoff baseball, something more spiritual than sport in The Hub, is in full swing.
As UMass Boston’s Maurice Cunningham — an expert in American national politics, Massachusetts politics, American political thought, and political thought of Abraham Lincoln– told BostInno bluntly, “On a local debate it is likely that many viewers will have already largely made up their minds. It doesn’t help that the Red Sox may still be playing when the debate goes on.”
Joshua Dyck, Co-Director of UMass Lowel’s Center for Public Opinion, concurs in every respect.
“Conveying information to voters through debates is a tough task for any candidate,” Dyck told BostInno. “For the most part, debate watchers mirror sports fans. They do not tune into the debate out of curiosity, but rather because they already have a rooting interest.”
So, what does Walsh need to do to win?
As it’s still early in the game, there are multiple strategies his campaign could employ. Most importantly for the former union leader, though, is connecting with voters. Connolly has a done an outstanding job of outlining his plans for education reform and women in business, but he’s run a conservative campaign that doesn’t particularly connect on the personal level that Walsh has been able to swoop in and utilize.
Being cast as the blue-collar, labor-centric, job-creating candidate could bolster his already solidified man-of-the-people persona. And while he and Connolly are almost identical on paper when comparing their stance on the issues at hand — fruitful education, smarter policing and public safety, LGBTQ advocacy, and workforce development — playing up the role he already owns is pivotal.
“At this point, the candidates should be most interested in projecting a facility and competence with every issue, projecting leadership, and appearing as though the executive office is not bigger than they are,” added Dyck.
But he also needs to play the game of politics, something that could be advantageous given Connolly’s conservative strategy thus far.
Continued Dyck,”The most effective strategy for Walsh at this point is to go negative on Connolly. It is, to be sure, one of the ugliest parts of politics, but people do it because it works. He needs to take a more aggressive stance and try to highlight major differences that separate he and Connolly.”
Finally, he needs voters to turn out to the polls. The more citizens who cast a ballot, the more likely Walsh is to come out on top. Couple that with the effectiveness of his endorsements and he may have a recipe for victory. But “Endorsements are one of the great hollow hopes of election campaigns” and are essentially meaningless unless the endorser is able to get their respective voters to turnout and support who they’re endorsing.
Per Dyck’s data precisely “31% of registered voters and 21% of the voting age population” turned out to toss a tally in the preliminaries which whittled the race down to our current candidates. While it’s assumed more votes will be counted on election day, it’s not necessarily a guarantee.
“Walsh only trails by 4 points, which is well within the 5 point margin-of-error.” But when the UML poll narrowed the scope to more specific demographics, Connolly’s lead “jumps to +12.”
At the end of tonight, both candidates will have ample opportunity to further iron-out any campaign kinks they may encounter. Stay tuned to BostInno for the latest Boston mayoral coverage.
[Photo courtesy of the Committee to Elect Martin J. Walsh]
