Depending on where you look, the race to find the next Boston Mayor may or may not be as close as you think. WBUR recently published a poll, the data of which indicates that the lead John Connolly boasts over Marty Walsh has slimmed significantly to a two-point margin, well within the 4.4 percent margin of error. But the Boston Globe, in tandem with the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, published a tally this morning conversely noting that Connolly leads Walsh by 8 percent.
What’s most interesting about the two differentiating polls is that they were conducted during relatively the exact same time. The WBUR pollsters compiled their data from October 19-20, whereas the Globe picked up its numbers between October 17-22. The intriguing aspect to this is that previous polls alluded that Marty Walsh has a higher favor if more people turn out to the polls. In that regard for the Globe, the more time they have to gather their data can be directly linked to gathering data from a larger sample size. By that logic, the lead between Connolly and Walsh ought to be slimmer.
But logic can hardly be counted on when it comes to taking polls and estimating on future outcomes because there are just too many variables. Throw in the fact that the Globe has outwardly endorsed Connolly, and we have to speculate on the poll’s bias.
Still, if anything in this race is certain it’s that the race is and will remain a dead heat until the very end.
Per the new poll, 44 percent of the 465 randomly selected Boston adults who are likely to vote throw their support behind Connolly while Walsh boasts a respectable 36 percent. For those who will definitely turn out to cast their ballot, the margin narrows but only slightly, and still in Connolly’s favor, to 44 percent in support of the former and 38 percent for the latter.
When considering leaners — those already with a candidate in mind — Connolly still reigns supreme garnering 47 percent of the sample size’s favor while Walsh wields 38 percent.
Perhaps the most eye-catching statistic of them all, though, is the favorability of each candidate in their own backyards. Connolly, a West Roxbury resident, lost out to Walsh 42 percent to 44 percent when considering the combined sentiments of West Roxbury and nearby Jamaica Plain, Hyde Park, and Roslindale. Walsh, a native of Dorchester, similarly lost out to Connolly 41 percent to 35 percent when considering the combination of Dorchester and nearby Mattapan and Roxbury.
With one more televised debate between the two it’s likely we’ll still see some potential voters shuffle from one side or the other. In the meantime, stay tuned to BostInno for the latest Boston mayoral coverage.
