State Rep. Marty Walsh and City Councilor John Connolly have been sparring so far in their bout over Boston politics, trading poll punches for haymaker endorsements. But it looks as though a Boston mayoral favorite could be emerging. In the latest survey conducted by University of Massachusetts Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion, 38% of the 605 registered Bostonians favor Connolly.
That’s not to say Walsh is out of contention, however, as the man representing the Thirteenth Suffolk district in the State legislature is favored by 34% of those questioned and registered in the municipality.
But focusing the scope slightly shows that Connolly boasts a wider lead. Of the 375 registered who are likely to vote, Connolly has the faith of 45% compared to Walsh’s 37%.
Breaking it down to specific demographics only reinforces what’s already known at this point. Connolly is more popular than Walsh amongst the women voters by a margin of 10 points, 40% to 30%. Walsh has a slight lead with men, 39% to 36%.
An interesting correlation between neighborhood and race shows the sentiments of minorities in favor of Walsh, as he is preferred by registered African-American voters 40% to 33%. But those more likely to vote interestingly favor Connolly 52% to 38%. This could be due to Walsh’s name recognition in his hometown of Dorchester, where he carried the neighborhood — and the minorities who reside there — by a wide margin in the preliminary. Still, as noted by the survey, “It is a common mistake to assume that members of a certain racial or ethnic group will vote completely in unison, particularly in local elections.”
Frank Talty, co-director of the Center for Public Opinion and assistant dean of UMass Lowell’s College of Fine Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, mentioned in a statement that “With nearly a quarter of likely voters still undecided, endorsements by candidates who were unsuccessful in the preliminary election can have an impact on the final outcome,” more of an allusion to the impact Charlotte Golar Richie will have on the campaign she opts to support. With her comes more minority support, more women support, and all of those in between who voted for her in the preliminaries. She is expected to announce an endorsement soon.
Walsh could gain some more momentum today, as he recently received the endorsement of LGBT activist Arline Isaacson to go along with those from John Barros and Felix Arroyo, and will be holding a press conference to outline his ideas for LGBT policy.
