Just hours after securing a spot on the Nov. 5 ballot, Marty Walsh — showcasing the blue collar work-ethic of his voter base — was back on the campaign trail, Boston.com reports.
Walsh reportedly introduced himself to Bostonians in front of the Savin Hill MBTA station at 6 a.m. Wednesday morning, with a costumary “Good morning, I’m Marty Walsh. I’m running for mayor. I’d like to ask for your vote Nov. 5,” according to Boston.com.
Walsh also conducted live interviews with several TV stations this morning; preparation for a battle with John Connolly over the course of the next month or so, which figures to be tightly contested. Walsh received a little over 1 percent more votes than Connolly — both emerging from a field of 12 candidates.
Walsh received tremendous support prior to the preliminary election from Boston unions — having worked as a union laborer prior to serving as a state representative; more than 2,000 volunteers were stationed in the city yesterday, WGHB reports.
Media outlets believe Walsh will have to expand this base to appeal to a broader range of Boston voters — a problem Connolly, his opponent, might not face.
NECN reported this morning that Connolly will attempt to garner support from “all corners” of the city. During a televised appearance aired by NECN this morning, Connolly said he has already been canvassing every area of the city for support and knows what it takes to get the city’s support.
The Boston Globe reports that Connolly’s campaign data indicated that he is an overwhelming favorite outside of South Boston and Dorchester. While Walsh received 75 percent of the vote to Connolly’s 25 percent in those neighborhoods, Connolly received 63 percent of the vote compared to 27 percent for Walsh across the rest of Boston.
A study from CommonWealth magazine adds to the notion that Connolly might be more of a favorite across the city come Nov. 5.
Statistics from the study show that mayoral voter turnout decreased nearly 47 percent combined in the five Dorchester wards –there are 22 total wards in Boston — between 1970 and 2012. Both South Boston ward’s however, saw a 19 percent increase in voter turnout during that same span. Overall, thats a 28 percent dip in votes from those wards. Only East Boston and Allston-Brighton saw a larger drop.
South Boston has a population of about 35,200; city-data reports that Dorchester has 83,416 residents. Combined, thats 118,616 of Boston’s 625,087 total residents — about 19 percent.
South Boston has 57,716 people 18 and over — eligible to vote. Dorchester has about 66,000 residents who, by age, are eligible to vote; nearly 124,000 possible voters. There were 112,804 (unofficial) votes cast yesterday — about 23.4 percent, the Boston Herald reports. That would be mean, statistically, about 20,800 votes came from Dorchester and South Boston combined — close to 18 percent of total votes cast.
Given the statistics revealed in the magazine, and what outlets are saying about the candidates’ voting base, Walsh may need to rely on a strong turnout from neighborhoods where voting has steadily declined, in order to outperform Connolly come Nov. 5.
If Walsh receives 75 percent of the South Boston and Dorchester vote Nov.5, that could give him about 15,600 votes in those neighborhoods; Connolly would be left with about 5,200 votes from Dorchester and South Boston.
That stil leaves close to 92,000 votes from the rest of the city — if the turnout remains the same as yesterday’s preliminary. Based on the statistics released by Connolly’s campaign, he could see about 58,000 votes, or 63 percent, from the rest of the city; Walsh would be left with about 34,000, or 37 percent of the vote outside Dorchester and South Boston.
Even with tremendous support from South Boston and Dorchester, Walsh would not be able to overtake Connolly, these statistics indicate; Connolly would end up with about 63,000 votes (56 percent), compared to roughly 50,000 going to Walsh, if the Nov. 5 turnout is consistent with yesterday’s preliminary. That’s only an 8 percent margin of victory for Connolly.
Like the article from earlier today, this is not a prediction. These are mere statistical observations based on previously reported figures. Again, this election should be close. Get out and vote.
Image from Jamaica Plain Patch
