UPDATE: This article was written prior to the newest developments made by MBTA officials. 

If you’re placing a bet on the region’s next development hot spot, you might want to put your money down on the area between Lechmere Square in Cambridge and Union Square in Somerville – if the state decides to go forward with the Green Line extension. 

This area of aging strip malls and even older industrial buildings sits right between one of America’s most robust innovation centers – the Kendall Square/Lechmere Square area – and one of Boston’s hottest neighborhoods – Union Square.  In fact, Union Square is quickly becoming its own innovation hub.  Greentown Labs, an energy incubator, opened there last October and now features over 40 companies, each trying to create the clean tech future. Boston-based Workbar, the shared workspace for entrepreneurs of all stripes, has already opened space down the street. 

It’s easy predict this stretch of underdeveloped land could become the next home to startups and growing small companies priced out of more mature innovation areas, near MIT and the Seaport.  But right now the area is a bit of a traffic nightmare, stitched together by the busy McGrath and O’Brien highway and other congested side streets.  Most important, it lacks the single factor that is driving so much of today’s urban economic growth – public transit. 

Fortunately, work has already begun on the Green Line Extension that would knit the area together with two public transit stops – one at Washington Street and one in Union Square (the extension would extend farther into Somerville and terminate in Medford, near Tufts University.)

That’s the good news.  But here’s why you should hedge your bets a bit. The state Department of Transportation is currently debating whether the Green Line Extension should continue.  Cost overruns discovered by the Baker Administration have given state officials pause at a critical moment for the project – and for the growth of this underdeveloped territory.  The state may decide the project’s fate as early as next month.

As we saw in our work at Assembly Square (where our company is working on the heating and cooling controls for the new Partners Health building), an MBTA stop is a critical element in attracting employers to a site.  Many of today’s urban workers, whether tech savvy millennials or traditional working class city residents, don’t even own cars.  And even if they do, they look for the convenience of public transport in making their work decisions.

Officials predict that the extension, which includes seven new T stops – including the relocated Lechmere stop in Cambridge – would serve about 45,000 riders daily. That eliminates at least 26,000 vehicular miles traveled on the highway. As a side benefit, critical choke points on I-93, such as the exits leading to Medford Square, Route 28, and Sullivan Square would see a sharp reduction in traffic, easing the flow up and down 93.

More important, the extension will power a new wave of economic growth in the area.  According to local and state officials, the Green Line project is expected to spur roughly $4 billion in private investment in our economy, creating 30,000 construction jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs. 

For the struggling middle class, those 30,000 well-paying construction jobs will be welcome news, continuing the sharp growth we’ve seen in recent years, as the state climbed out of the recession and into a building boom.  Just as important, of course, are the 30,000 permanent jobs that will pepper the new innovation zone that officials envision spreading along the line between Cambridge and Union Square, as the entrepreneurial economy continues to spread up and down the MBTA’s Red, Green, and Orange Lines.

With the upcoming decision by the Transportation Department and the MBTA, the state will be facing a high stakes crossroads.  Officials at both agencies certainly have an obligation to make sure the Green Line Extension costs are reined in; that they don’t become a mini-Big Dig for taxpayers.  However, assuming those expenses can be brought under control, we should keep making this investment.  Failure to do so will result in paying a far higher price down the road – in lost jobs, lost growth, and a lost foothold in the global competition for innovation jobs.  All in all, we think the Green Line Extension is good bet for not just Cambridge, Somerville, and Medford but for the region’s economy.